"The Government have clearly sent the message to Shell, ‘you can do whatever you want’. Fortunately due to protest, the refinery remains unconnected to the gas field. If, as Shell planned, gas had been flowing by now, we would potentially all be dealing with a gas leak and explosion.”
A new Barryroe resource audit is expected to be published later this month.
And the City broker believes the oilfield may contain 1 billion barrels of oil-in-place, with 160 million barrels of recoverable oil, following the recent testing success.
In March an appraisal well successfully showed that Barryroe could yield commercial oil flows. It was a breakthrough for Ireland’s nascent oil industry. And the analysis that has followed has provided further encouragement.
“The March well results and subsequent data evaluation demonstrated that the 2010 RPS assumptions are likely to be far too cautious. We expect significant upgrades to market expectations,” analyst Andrew Whittock said in a note.
“Based on net pay, porosity and hydrocarbon saturation data points released following the latest Barryroe well, and educated guesstimates of the areal extent of the basal interval that was tested, we estimate STOIIP in that basal interval could be c.750mmb.
“With more than 300mmb upside to that from the Lower and Middle Wealden sections and as yet undefined upside from the upper, secondary objectives confirmed by the well, we believe Providence could announce a STOIIP of at least 1.0bn barrels.”
Whittock says that while certain aspects of his estimate may be found inaccurate, the range of potential outcomes ‘give confidence’ that the new assessment will be ‘a multiple of current market expectations’.
The analyst’s already punchy 1245p price target, which suggests the stock is worth nearly three times the current price, is based on Barryroe containing 100 million barrels of recoverable oil.
Liberum has a ‘buy’ rating on the stock.