Skip to main content

Climate change ‘will soon be irreversible’

By: 
Emily Beament - Irish Examiner

The world faces a "very high risk of severe, widespread and irreversible" impacts from climate change without action to cut emissions, a major international report has warned.

Experts warned there was little time before the window of opportunity to limit temperature rises to below dangerous levels closed, and that delaying action would greatly increase the costs.

 

The warning came as the United Nations climate body published the final report of its latest assessment on the science of climate change, drawing together three studies published in the past year.

 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report showed that global warming was “unequivocal” and human influence on the climate was clear. It was “extremely likely” or more than 95% certain that the majority of the warming since the 1950s was down to human activity.

 

Climate change was already having an impact on every continent, affecting human health, agriculture and wildlife, and increasing weather extremes, the Synthesis Report said.

 

Massive cuts to greenhouse gas emissions are needed in the coming decades to curb temperature rises to no more than 2C, the level at which it is thought dangerous impacts of climate change will be felt.

 

A failure to take more action than is already planned to curb greenhouse gases leaves the world at risk of temperatures soaring 3.7C to 4.8C, or even higher, by 2100.

 

The report said it was possible to tackle climate change, with many available solutions to cutting emissions, but the pledges made by countries to cut greenhouse gases by 2020 were not enough.

 

And it warned that delaying taking more action to cut emissions until 2030 will make it much harder to keep temperature rises to below 2C.

 

But action to tackle emissions would not have a major impact on economic growth, with global growth expected to be between 1.6% and 3% a year, and ambitious moves on climate change likely to curb that by just 0.06 percentage points.

 

In a stark warning, the report said that without extra action to bring down emissions, global warming by the end of the century “will lead to very high risk of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts globally”.

 

Continued emissions rises will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and nature, it warned.

 

Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC said: “We have the means to limit climate change. The solutions are many and allow for continued economic and human development.

 

“All we need is the will to change, which we trust will be motivated by knowledge and an understanding of the science of climate change.”

 

He said the scientific case for prioritising action on climate change was clearer than ever. But he warned: “We have little time before the window of opportunity to stay within 2C of warming closes.

 

“To keep a good chance of staying below 2C, and at manageable costs, our emissions should drop by 40% to 70% globally between 2010 and 2050, falling to zero or below by 2100. We have that opportunity, and the choice is in our hands.”

 

The Synthesis Report brings together the three parts of the IPCC’s fifth assessment on climate change, which involves thousands of scientists and experts.

 

The Synthesis Report sets out the case on climate change for policymakers and has been subject to scrutiny and approval by governments.

 

“The findings of this report are unequivocal. Scientists now know that humans are causing climate change with the same level of certainty that we know smoking causes cancer. The evidence presented today also confirms that climate change is already happening and that its impacts are ‘severe, pervasive and irreversible’.”

 

It’s not too late to act

By Emily Beament

 

The IPCC report reiterates it is not too late to cut the risk climate change poses to our communities — and stay within internationally agreed danger thresholds.

 

However, it said if we are going to avoid irreversible changes to the climate, we need to leave the vast majority of our fossil fuel reserves in the ground and switch investment to the clean solutions that are becoming more available, and cheaper, now.”

 

The report comes at a critical time. Next month, government delegations from around the world will meet in Lima, Peru, to lay the groundwork for an international agreement to limit climate change due to be signed in Paris, in December 2015.

 

David Healy, policy and advocacy co-ordinator for Oxfam Ireland, said the report restates the grave challenge climate change poses to food security in many parts of the world.

 

“The report comes just weeks after hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets around the world to demand urgent action on climate change,” said Mr Healy.

 

“Governments and policy makers must recognise the calls from citizens and scientists to limit the worst effects of climate change by making the transition to a low-carbon, fossil fuel-free economy.

 

“We are calling on the Government to publish and debate the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Bill immediately, so that Ireland can begin to take the necessary steps towards this transition. It would also be a positive signal of the Government’s intention to tackle Ireland’s emissions, ahead of the UN climate change negotiations which begin a month from now in Lima, Peru.”

 

The report said that around 80% of greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades was carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industrial processes.

 

Power from low-carbon energy sources, including renewables and nuclear power, would need to be scaled up from 30% of electricity generation now to more than 80% by the middle of the century to limit rising temperatures, the IPCC said.

 

Fossil-fuel power generation without the technology to capture and permanently store its carbon emissions would have to be phased out almost entirely by the end of the century, the report said. There would need to be a significant shift in investment from fossil fuels to renewables and efficiency in transport, industry, and buildings.

 

The report also said removing subsidies worth hundreds of billions of dollars a year from oil, coal, and gas would reduce emissions. Action to tackle climate change would devalue fossil fuel assets and reduce revenues for fossil fuel companies.

 

Greenpeace head of international climate politics Martin Kaiser said: “For scientists, there is nothing vague about how to deal with climate change. Governments need to pay attention and phase out coal and oil now or end up doing it later at a much higher cost. However, those who seize the potential of renewable energy will leap ahead to a sustainable future.”

 

Trócaire executive director Éamonn Meehan said it was fitting that this report was released on Halloween weekend because the findings of the IPCC report are terrifying for the future of humanity.

 

“Once again, the experts have warned us that the current level of political action is not enough to stop a future marked by species extinction, hunger, flooding, drought and increased poverty,” said Mr Meehan. “The IPCC has delivered yet another stark warning of what we face tomorrow if we do not take action today.

 

“What the IPCC also tells us is that this problem is not hopeless. We can avert the worst predictions but we need the political will to take the necessary steps now.”

Posted Date: 
6 November 2014